My predictions
Congrats equmbo, we each got two of the three finalists right. We were both right on Rebecca Watson and both wrong about April Baer making the cut. I'm betting that Watson walked away with the popular vote. I hope they release the results. And, now that it doesn't matter, they release the results of the other votes. I'm just curious.
A few observations and thoughts on the finalists and the competition;
Rebecca Watson will easily win the popularity vote. She has nearly twice as many comments as any of the other contestants. None of the others has a fan base that can compete with her Skeptical Enquirer posse. The links under the heading, ‘Sites talking about Talent Quest’, has been mostly dedicated to Watson. And, by being part of an existing show, ‘The Skeptics Guide to the Universe’, she has the advantage of having a fully developed concept to build on. But while The Learning Channel’s Mythbusters is a good show, they ran out of myths after the second season, wouldn’t ‘skepchick’ face the same problem?
Glynn Washington has a good voice, good concept, but it is the same show he has been demoing since his original entry. If you liked him before you probably like him now.
April Baer is in an unfortunate situation. As someone who is already a public radio broadcaster, she is the most experienced, but, if she were to win, it would be easy for supporters of other contestants to portray her as a ringer with an insider’s advantages. Her public radio lineage is quite visible with her concept; a mix of an in-depth All Things Considered segment with the Satellite Sisters and a little skit comedy thrown in. (For their one shot, the ‘stellar radio sketch comedy team’s’ riff on current news should have been funnier.)
Al Letson and Chris de Ville were the ones I most anticipated as, up to this point, they had mostly been selling their personalities, and have given little indication of what they were going to do for a show.
Chris de Ville keeps getting kudos about his writing, but that is beginning to sound like a backhanded compliment. He has put together quite the accomplishment; a show that might be too esoteric for public radio. Although interesting, very few would be familiar with the writers or books he referred to. He is also lagging way behind the other four in number of comments, which just reinforces the impression that he has inspired the least interest.
Al Letson’s show sounds like Dave Attell’s Insomniac, which use to appear on Comedy Central, just with less alcohol and humor, and more religion and music. It would have a ready-made underwriter, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. What city wouldn’t want to be featured? He has the second best radio voice of the five.
I expect the three finalists to be Watson, Washington and either Baer or Letson.
Will the judges, who are mostly public radio people and products of the same culture as Baer, choose one of their own or will they find it untenable to, what could be labeled, promote from within?
Almost all public radio shows are at least an hour. Do any of these ideas have the gravitas to fill a whole hour with interesting content? Would you listen to an hour of ‘Snap Judgments’ or an hour audio travelogue or debunking pseudo science?
Predictions
Glynn Washington will get a segment on This American Life.
Rebecca Watson will win the rest of the popular votes and get an internship on Science Fridays.
April Baer will continue to work for NPR and get a promotion.
But no one will get a full blown show from this contest. Maybe someday, one or more will have a show, but no one will directly jump from the PRTQ to a regular gig.
I’ll throw in few predictions about some of the past contestants. Bee Jellyfish will be around in five years, more polished and possibly with a new moniker, but certainly with fewer vowelsss. Komal Trivedi will get more recognition in a musical/cultural genre that is just beginning to take off. If bluegrass, folk, blues, new age and Celtic, can have their own shows, then the bolly beat is a niche that is crying to be filled. Carrie Kaufman will reemerge, but not on a gay, robotics show. And Chuck Mertz will continue to broadcast 4 hours of interviews, opinions and analysis from around the world every Saturday morning awaiting someone to give him national exposure and, finally, maybe even a paycheck.
I don't actually work for NPR. I work for a member station. While it's a good job, I don't have my own show.
I think you're dead on with a lot of the predictions. When they gave us the challenges for this round, I really thought I knew who was going to advance. Now... whew. All bets are off.
Let's hear it for the techniques of Nostradamus! I have no doubt that a couple "predictions," especially the obvious "more of the same" ones, will come to pass. Good idea to similarly dismiss them all though.. since there's so much more risk involved in predicting success.
Not to completely go on a limb and suggest predictions, but perhaps it's my own personal flaw of optimism causing me to imagine that each of these contestants have a good chance to get their own show.. given perhaps a little revision and fleshing out of their ideas.
Baer will have to step quite far away to keep from blending in with the rest of NPR programming.. but she's clearly the safest bet once she gets into a less transparent comedy routine.
Washington's "Snap Judgements" could definitely be a fresh look at how and why people make decisions, even if he only looks at the horrible ones. There's much we can learn from, let alone be entertained by, stories of human nature in heat-of-the-moment situations.
It's a cheap shot to pretend that Skepchick would run out of fuel in a couple years. Watson has tons of claims to investigate.. even if all she did was turn on her TV for a few hours a week. (As an aside, I guess you're suggesting that the claims walking on water, knocking the hide off a baseball, and the ability to have a car that makes 90-degree grappling hook turns from Mythbuster's latest 5th and 6th seasons somehow don't count as legitimate myths?)
Letson's "travelogue" is a great approach to getting america to take a second look at their local entertainment resources while at the same time providing a window to different parts of the country.
And while de Ville's proposed show may be a shade overambitious, obscure international literature is certainly a growing market even here in Nebraska and is certainly a refreshing alternative to the self-help bookclubs of recent decades.
And even if I'm completely wrong to be interested in such show ideas.. I'd argue that it's still in poor taste to deflate all these ambitions even before they're given the chance to make a full episode. Stumbling can be expected.. but they all have a very good chance at successfully running with the NPR pack.
Best of luck to all the contestants.


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