"Office Pool" :: What will be the final entry count? Winner announced!!!!
Inquiring Bears want to know (SM)(TM)(C)(R)(MIC)(KEY)(MO)(USE)
What is your guess? What will be the final number of entries for round 1? (Sorry folks, no guessing allowed for round 2 or beyond!)
I'm going to stick with my initial guess that the final entry count will be 726.3 entries.
Winner gets bragging rights, and maybe even a little instrumental tune composed just for you (I get to choose the style and type)!
P.S. Deadline? Midnight of the 13th of May?
Jimmy
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Please listen to my entry (and comment, please) at:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/197
I made a tune for you (and everyone at the PRTQ) http://jimmybearpearson.com/prtq.php.
delicious
diggwhoooo hooo!!
so what, no prize?? sheesh.
I almost missed the fact that I won something. I've been buried in my book all day. I just finished the official FIRST DRAFT of my book. whew.
and NOW I find I've won this contest. Can it get any better than this??
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CHECK OUT MY ENTRY:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/1149
READ MY BLOG: www.akajesais.com
CONTRIBUTOR: www.SanDiegoBlog.com
The winner, for having the best guess without going over and in before the Sunday night deadline (sorry LindaLowen :-)) is:
JeSais!
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/1149
You now have bragging rights to being the best entry-count guesser for the inaugural Public Radio Talent Quest!!!!!
A tune is forthcoming as your additional prize. Stay tuned!
Jimmy
----
Here, I'm speaking in the node:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/197
I made a tune for you the PRTQ! http://jimmybearpearson.com/prtq.php.
Thanks for the cool graph. From merely five days ago: "I'll go for 680 - Submitted by dknuckey on May 10, 2007 - 1:39pm. - Adjusting my highly precise extrapolation of a day ago for the recent surge in entries, I'll put my bet in at 680."
I guess my extrapolation skills are a bit rusty... but that really was an unprecedented run up. Who'd have thought that more than half the entrancts would wait until the last two days? I would have thought that most people would want as many voting days as they could.
Deborah
Listen away at: http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/703
Don't feel bad, Deborah - even with the analysis, my guess was off by a whopping 500. So much for Science!
I'm sure I'll be mocked mercilessly for this, but I'm comfortable in my nerdhood, and with >10K users on the site, I thought maybe at least one other person might be interested. If you don't care, or if you think mathy stuff is bombastic, please feel free to ignore this post :)
I know we all expected a big surge of entries at the last minute, but I for one am amazed at just how big a surge it was (and judging from the number of people complaining that their entries didn't go through, it's a lot smaller than it might have been).
Anyway, when Jimmy started this thread, I took about 10 minutes to multitask while watching TV and jotted down how many entries were on the site at the end of each day (I just scrolled through the chronological list). It followed a surprisingly consistent trend, the number increasing exponentially as the contest wore on. I plotted it out, essentially for my own amusement, but I figued I might as well share. The graph linked below shows the total number of entries (blue points) at the end of each contest day, along with an exponential fit (with extrapolation to the final tally - black line). However, the last two days (pink points) veer wildly away from this trend.
As an even clearer demonstration, we can look at the graph of new entries per day. It's fairly consistent through most of the contest (with certain days of the week showing a characteristically higher number of entries). Over the last week or so (pink points), there's a sharp linear increase (at least it seemed that way at the time), then the last two days are off the charts, with over 400 new entries on the final day. Pretty wild.
Seriously. Great post! I never knew this would run so far into fun.
I'll be posting an update soon! (working, gotta do that first.)
Jimmy
----
Please listen to my entry (and comment, please) at:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/197
I made a tune for you (and everyone at the PRTQ) http://jimmybearpearson.com/prtq.php.
Inquiring Bears want to know! (SM)(TM)(C)(R)(MIC)(KEY)(MO)(USE)
Thanks for the nerd update, love it!
************************************************
Life is a matinee. BroadwayMatinee.com
Judge
my hostiness in the PRTQ
Thank you Heather - not enough of us have the simple know-how to take a bunch of numeric data, plot it, and pop out a chart that the rest of us innumerate idiots can comprehend.
I also echo Rob's comments - with the onslaught of new entries came a different tone in postings.
Is data like that plottable? Can one show how there's a greater tendency toward less than positive behavior the larger the community grows? In a village, we all know each other's names and have heard each other's stories. We therefore care. In a city, anonymity makes us all careless strangers, unless we deliberately try to reach out and form smaller villages.
-- Linda
Visit me in my House by the Sea:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/audio/user/1432
http://blog.syracuse.com/communitycritics/linda_lowen/
This is definitely something that could be analyzed, but Steve's right that it would require some sort of consistent conversion between qualitative and quantitative (which is always a fun challenge, but very time-consuming). Is there a Sociologist in the house?
Actually, a lot of sociologists and behavioral scientists have been looking at the web in recent years - I bet there are actually a ton of papers and theses on this phenomenon.
Anyway, glad you enjoyed the graphs :)
To qualitative data. If you can qualify the comments then you can plot them and look for trends.
And you would have to decide if you wanted to see if individual’s changed as a function of the community size, or whether the group as an average change in tone as the number of entrants grew.
Steve
No one should, look back with regret on all that they never did: the beauties they did not see, the music they did not hear, the flavors they did not taste, the aromas they did not inhale, the sensations they did not feel.
Yes it's a vast nerdiness I haven't seen in some time, but it's damn cool. Anybody mocks you and and they'll have some 'splainin' to do.
After looking at your graphs, it's kinda funny - I got into this several weeks ago, and noticed a definite change in tone and tenor in many of the postings and forum discussions. The pink delineates that shift pretty accurately. PRX would do well to keep you around to give them consultation as this shindig goes further along (if nothing else to assist the server techs in forseeing future onslaughts).
And I'd be willing to donate my compositional skills to write that music for the winner...
sometimes Dr.Ryan scares me......what would happen if you locked her in a room for a few months with some things to play with...like pencil and paper, a microscope a few chemicals and a beaker and a bunsen burner???? she would probably create a master race of single celled organisms that would evolve AND TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!! she's deadly I tell you - smart and alot of time on her hands lol!!!
Alas, I don't have a lot of time on my hands (though loitering around this site has encouraged me to create more at the expense of my productivity) - I think it actually took me longer to type out that darn post than to compile and graph the data...
But perhaps you have something here - I submit that PRX is now morally behooved to send me to round 2 in order to keep me occupied with something other than world domination... "Humor the Scientist, Save the World" ;)
Heather
That's what's frightening!
Teehee!
*n*
"The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about" - Oscar Wilde
...in the other direction!
*n*
"The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about" - Oscar Wilde
We'll probably have to pick a winner based on "closest." Waiting for the final tally tonight.
Jimmy
----
Please listen to my entry (and comment, please) at:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/197
I made a tune for you (and everyone at the PRTQ) http://jimmybearpearson.com/prtq.php.
Yikes, we're nudging 1000 and my guesstimate has been left in the dust. Who'd have thought that the last minute run up would be so huge? Only trouble is, last-minute posters have much less time to be heard and about half the chance of coming up randomly when someone hits the "vote" button - but with 90% of the next-rounders being picked by the judges, it probably doesn't matter.
Good luck to all - because we now need so much more luck to make the grade! (Talent? Whaddaya mean talent?)
Deborah
Listen away at: http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/703
I admit it - I'm addicted. It's 4:13am, I'm listening and posting, and I just checked the latest stats - and we're up to 970 entries! I lost with my initial guess - most of us below have lost - 'who'd a thunk,' as my husband says?
Jimmy, if you let me submit another guess (I know, they don't give us do-overs for our entries, but how about our guesses?) I'd pick 1200 even steven.
-- Linda
Visit me in my House by the Sea:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/audio/user/1432
http://blog.syracuse.com/communitycritics/linda_lowen/
Folks,
Hello! (BTW, thank you all for the nice emails, comments, and posts. This has been a truly uplifting experience for me.)
Don't forget: tonight at midnight is the deadline for the "Office Pool." I'm almost done with the prize tune! (It's mother's day, so I'm busy doing other things... I'll probably finish it up in time for the end of the contest.)
Cheers!
Jimmy
----
Please listen to my entry (and comment, please) at:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/197
I made a tune for you (and everyone at the PRTQ) http://jimmybearpearson.com/prtq.php.
Inquiring Bears want to know! (SM)(TM)(C)(R)(MIC)(KEY)(MO)(USE)
I did an excel spreadsheet based on the number of entries received since the contest began, the number of entries per day, then calculating the acceleration rate over the last 24 hours, and projecting an accelerated acceleration rate over the next 24 hours....
NAH. Totally guessed it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CHECK OUT MY ENTRY:
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/1149
READ MY BLOG: www.akajesais.com
CONTRIBUTOR: www.SanDiegoBlog.com
I suspect a last-minute push will get the entry count past the thousand mark by the time the deadline comes. Now, if all 1000-plus would donate to their local public-radio stations... oh wait -- we're probably already on the list of pledge-drive givers... which means we rock.
Natalie Davis
http://gdreadradio.net
http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/1068
In the art world people wait until the very last minute-it's that spacy artist thing. Or unorganized...or distracted...to submit grant proposals.
Might be similiar in the 'real' world of entering Public Radio Quests. So I guess 948.
P.S. Your audio was one of the first ones I listened to--I liked it alot--funny and creative. You're in my top ten...hope you make it to the finals!
My extrapolation is now out of view as the left hand axis has been rescaled and my petty hopes to be one of only 600-ish has plummeted to being an unheard of 0.1% of a mob of talent.
Ah well - at least I'll always have my HP-12C
Deborah
Listen away at: http://www.publicradioquest.com/node/703
This estimate is based on the extrapolation of the exponential increase (fit quality: .96) in cumulative number of entries as a function of time. The trendline is slightly overestimating the number of entries the last few days, but perhaps that final procrastinative push will make up for that. The number of entries per day has been increasing sharply over the last week or so, so that may help as well. However, if I'm off, my guess is that I'll overestimate rather than underestimate. Good thing this isn't The Price is Right!
Yes, I really am that big of a nerd.
There is absolutely nothing I can add to this post, it has everything?! I'd say the author has the making for one heckuva comment-tator on the radio--able to fill up loose air with $2 words about absolutely nothing but making most of the listeners think they're hearing something they should understand?!? Good job!
Lynn Kindler, The "Idea" Coach
Please listen to my tape at http://www.publicradioquest.com/audio/user/52 and vote!!
www.sacredpathcoaching.com
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